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Bitcoin is looking like a bull in a China shop.
Almost hit $70k today. The back down to day's lows.
The volatility is crazy.
The predictions are crazy too.
Some expects BTC to hit $100K by October 2024.
Gracy Chen, Bitget's Managing Director, forecasts - "$120,000 to $140,000 in this bull market cycle."
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check has is hopes a bit extra high: "I would be very surprised if we don’t crack $250K this cycle,” he said in an interview on Thursday.
Cathie Wood? She now sees a bull case of $1.5 million by 2030.
Bitcoin's price action is eerily similar to what happened in 2020 before its epic rally.
Looking at historical cycles, analysts predict a peak 10 times higher than the November 2022 low of $15,495.
The analysis acknowledges a trend of smaller gains in each cycle. A 10x increase would follow this pattern.
What say JPMorgan?
JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin reaching gold's level in investment portfolios is a mirage.
Sure, gold's total value is still way higher at $3.3 trillion compared to Bitcoin's $1.3 trillion. But Bitcoin's much more volatile than gold.
Think of it like this: If you take risk into account, investors should hold less Bitcoin than gold to balance their portfolios.
But guess what? They're not.
The current Bitcoin lovefest means it already holds a bigger role (when adjusted for risk) than gold would in a balanced portfolio.
This suggests investors are seeing Bitcoin as more than just "digital gold."
The analysts see a more achievable goal for spot Bitcoin ETFs - reaching $62 billion within 2-3 years.
But, the SEC has postponed its decision on approving options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs until April 24th.
This could be a big deal for Bitcoin's future, potentially attracting even more big money investors.
Return of Animal Spirits?
Remember those crazy "Bitcoin to the moon" days of 2021?
Looks like they're back.
Bitcoin traders are placing a massive bet that the price could triple by year's end.
Here's the wild part: they're putting their money on a $200,000 call option, which is almost 3 times higher than Bitcoin's current price.
Of the total, $14.6 million is locked in the $200,000 call expiring on Dec. 27, rest is concentrated in June and September expiry strikes, Deribit Metrics.
This risky move suggests a return of the "animal spirits" in the market, with traders feeling super bullish on Bitcoin.
Over $20 million is currently locked in these high-strike calls, reflecting a strong belief that Bitcoin will see a major price surge in the coming months.
Why are they so optimistic?
Bitcoin halving hype.
Wall Street love.
Record-breaking options market.
These deep out-of-the-money calls are a gamble.
If Bitcoin doesn't reach $200,000 by expiry, the option loses all value. But, if the price skyrockets, the potential profits could be massive.
Block That Quote
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.
"People don't need to worry about a central bank digital currency. Nothing like that is remotely close to happening anytime soon."
The US isn't rushing into a digital dollar like other countries.
Powell assures that CBDC is nowhere on the horizon.
Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
Why the Reassurance?
Other nations are racing ahead with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
Some fear the US might follow suit, creating a "spy coin" that tracks your every purchase (think China's digital yuan).
"Only banks have accounts at the Fed and that's the way we're going to keep it."
Where’s ETF?🚨
Total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs on March 7 were $472 million. Grayscale GBTC saw a single-day net outflow of $374 million.
Fidelity ETF FBTC saw a single-day net inflow of $473 million.
The total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is US$54.09 billion.
The historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$9.37 billion👇
Coinbase Report Cautious on AI token
A new report from Coinbase Institutional throws shade on the recent surge in AI token values. Analyst David Han warns that the "value potential for many AI tokens may be overstated."
Why is Coinbase skeptical?
Missing Demand: Han argues there's a lack of clear reasons why people would actually need and use these tokens in the short to medium term.
Competition Galore: Established players like OpenAI and Microsoft are already dominating the AI space.
Regulation Risk: Governments might throw a wrench in the whole thing with regulations aimed at the crypto industry.
This flies in the face of recent gains. AI tokens cumulatively hold a market cap of $51.18 billion according to Crypto.com data.
Did Tesla Buy Back Bitcoin?
Tesla’s wallet now holds about 11,509 BTC at the time of writing, 1,789 more than the 9,720 BTC it reported during its last earnings report.
Elon Musk's companies, Tesla and SpaceX, are sitting on a massive $1.3 billion Bitcoin pile.
Tesla's stash: Over $771 million worth of BTC.
SpaceX's treasure chest: Packed with $555 million in BTC.
Tesla's Bitcoin Rollercoaster
February 2021: Tesla splashes $1.5 billion on Bitcoin (near its peak!).
March 2021: They ditch 10% of their holdings.
2022: Tesla sells 75% of their remaining Bitcoin.
2023: Their stash stayed flat at 9,720 BTC... until now?
Elon Musk has a complicated relationship with Bitcoin;
He initially praised it, even planning to accept Bitcoin for Teslas.
But then, environmental concerns led him to ditch Bitcoin payments.
The Surfer 🏄
Binance Labs, the venture capital arm of Binance, has invested in seven startups from its incubation season 6 program.
Ethena has become the highest-earning DApp in the crypto space.
Optimism Foundation sells 19.5 million of its governance tokens in a private deal
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