Bitcoin Halving Be Different This Time? 👁️
Bitcoin's halving might not be the price explosion everyone expects. JPMorgan expects the SEC to eventually approve spot Ethereum ETFs. Crypto world stands for Roman Storm. Ethena onboards Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin's halving is here, but this time it's different.
Every past halving (when miner rewards are cut in half) came before a new price high. This time, Bitcoin hit a record high of $72,000 less than two weeks before the halving.
So, what now?
Historically, halvings led to price increases after the event.
This time, the price surge might already be baked in due to the recent ETF approval.
Here's a quick history lesson:
2012 Halving: Price jumped from $12 to $229 by April 2013, then to $1,132 by November.
2016 Halving: Price rose slowly, then exploded to $19,188 by December 2017 (a year and a half later).
2020 Halving: Price went from $8,500 to over $40,000 by January 2021, peaking above $67,000 in November 2021.
Will this halving follow the trend or break the mould? We'll need to wait and see that.
Coinbase says what?
Bitcoin's upcoming halving might not be the price explosion everyone expects. Coinbase warns that historically, this time of year is lacklustre for crypto markets.
"The BTC halving, currently due April 20 or 21, could be a catalyst for higher prices, but it will have to contend with what is typically a weak time of year for crypto markets and other risk assets."
Bitcoin Back Above $72K
BTC topped $72,000 fuelled by anticipation of the halving on April 20th.
While Bitcoin surges, the broader market remains mostly flat.
A drop back to $50,000 is looking unlikely.
Senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, Dylan LeClair, explains.
“As we’ve consolidated, an increasing amount of short liquidations are building from 70-75k. While there is a large cluster of longs that could be taken out at ~50k, given the structure of higher lows and the lack of immediate froth in the derivatives landscape currently, I find it pretty unlikely we revisit that level. Not impossible of course.”
Bitcoin’s price last dipped below $50,000 on Feb 13, hitting $49,725.
Just a day before, on Feb 12, it reached $50,000.
But some niche areas are booming. Ordinals, a way to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain, are seeing a surge in interest. Memecoins built on the BRC-20 standard are also rallying.
Block That Quote 🎙️
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and global market strategist at JPMorgan
"We believe that the most likely scenario is that the SEC eventually loses this litigation, which means that eventually, the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs (but not as soon as this May)."
JPMorgan expects the SEC to eventually approve spot Ethereum ETFs.
JPMorgan sees a potential legal battle if May deadline is missed.
They believe the SEC will eventually lose, paving the way for spot Ethereum ETFs.
This comes despite the SEC investigating the Ethereum Foundation and potentially classifying Ether (ETH) as a security.
Crypto World Stands for Roman Storm
Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm is getting backup from the crypto world.
Three advocacy groups filed legal briefs arguing his arrest was a mistake: Coin Center, the Blockchain Association, and the DeFi Education Fund.
Why was Storm arrested? He co-founded Tornado Cash, a tool that allows people to hide the origin of cryptocurrency transactions. Prosecutors say criminals use it, but Storm says it's just a privacy tool.
What do the briefs say? The groups argue the government doesn't understand how crypto works. They say Storm can't be blamed for how people use his creation, any more than a car manufacturer can be blamed for drunk drivers.
In the Numbers 🔢
$7 million
Number of DApp daily active users.
DApp usage skyrocketed 77% in Q1 2024.
This is the highest adoption rate since 2022, signalling a strong recovery for the decentralised app market.
While gaming and DeFi remain strong, social DApps stole the show with a massive 324% growth in active users.
What's driving the surge?
Bitcoin's record highs and approval of Bitcoin ETFs.
Rising NFT Trading volume - jumped 50% to $3.9 billion in Q1.
Ethena Onboards Bitcoin
Ethena Labs is now using Bitcoin alongside existing assets to back USDe, aiming for:
Higher Yields: By incorporating Bitcoin's futures market, Ethena hopes to boost yields for USDe holders.
Increased Stability: The addition of Bitcoin is claimed to make USDe a "safer" product.
Ethena uses a complex strategy involving shorting Bitcoin futures. This approach has its critics, but it's attracted users so far - over $2 billion in USDe is already in circulation.
The Surfer 🏄
PayPal stablecoin circulation dropped 38% in March, according to Paxos. Total PayPal USD in circulation was $188.5 million in March, 39% less than in February, according to Paxos.
Global crypto funds have raked in $13.8 billion year-to-date, with another $646 million added last week. This surge surpasses the previous annual record of $10.6 billion set in 2021. Big names like BlackRock and Fidelity are leading the charge, pouring money into crypto funds.
dYdX experienced a chain halt during a scheduled upgrade. The outage has been ongoing since 6:50 a.m. UTC, with engineers currently investigating the issue - First major outage for dYdX since its version 4 launch on mainnet in October.
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