BTC Rally Accelerates ☄️
Inches closer to historic weekly close
Welcome to Mempool - your weekly market and news insights on Bitcoin.
We're looking at Week 26 of 2025 (Jun 23-Jun 29)
Bitcoin records third-best week of 2025
ETFs persist with positive inflows through Middle-East tensions
Core Scientific leads crypto stocks on CoreWeave buy-out talks
Corporate BTC treasury could be a ticking bomb for many
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The Week That Was
Bitcoin delivered its third-best weekly performance of 2025, surging 7.33% to close at $108,386 as it rode on the cease-fire news after a couple of weeks of geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
Bitcoin's weekly journey showed its ability to quickly absorb selling pressure while maintaining structure above earlier support levels. The week began around $100,987 before embarking on a steady climb that saw increasing momentum through each trading session.
The rally pushed Bitcoin dominance to a yearly high of 65.1% intra-week, reinforcing its position as the preferred digital asset during periods of uncertainty.
The week's momentum rose steadily after the momentary slip into "fear" territory on the Crypto Greed Index toward the end of the preceding week due to the US strikes on Iran. Sentiment quickly stabilised back to neutral at 52 as bulls regained control.
Open Interest climbed 7.5% to $72.68 billion from the previous week, indicating renewed speculative positioning as traders positioned for potential breakouts.
The combination of technical strength and improving sentiment metrics suggested underlying market health despite recent volatility from geopolitical events.
ETF flows in the week more than doubled from the preceding week showing institutional conviction even as Bitcoin approached critical resistance levels. Three days of the last week recorded at least $500 million in ETF inflows, creating one of the most consistent five-day accumulation streaks this year.
Price Chart Analysis
Bitcoin’s daily progression shows consistent accumulation through the week, helping it go beyond $106,000 on Wednesday, a level that it failed to retain through the preceding week.
From Wednesday through the weekend, the cryptocurrency saw healthy consolidation in the $106,500-$108,500 range.
The weekend climb north of $107,000 gave Bitcoin momentum to go close to the critical resistance level of $109,000.
Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $109,000 (highest weekly close ever)
Critical Support: $106,500 (newly reclaimed resistance turned support)
Major Support: $105,000 zone (50-day simple moving average)
All-time high: $111,917 (all-time high)
A decisive break above $109,000 coupled with sustained institutional flows could trigger accelerated momentum toward the $115,000 level that prediction markets are increasingly pricing in. Conversely, failure to hold above $107,000 could signal a return to consolidation within the broader $100,000-$110,000 range that has defined recent trading.
ETF Flows Turn Stronger
Bitcoin ETFs collectively delivered their third best week of 2025 topping the $2-billion mark in weekly net flows. It was the ninth best week since their inception in January 2024. This surge pushed cumulative inflows to a new all-time high of $48.87 billion.
This was the third consecutive week of positive net flows.
BlackRock's IBIT continues its dominance with 14 straight positive sessions aggregating $3.66 billion in net flows.
The institutional appetite appears increasingly divorced from short-term price movements as ETFs continued with positive flows despite the June 21-22 weekend slump in Bitcoin price driven by US strikes on Iran.
Stocks Steady after Shaky Week
All crypto stocks under our observation barring the preceding week’s leader, Circle, recorded a positive weekly gain last week.
Core Scientific (CORZ) led the lot with a 40% weekly gain, reaching six-month highs. The surge came amid speculation of a potential acquisition by cloud compute giant CoreWeave.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald suggested the buy-out could value CORZ at over $30 per share, nearly double current levels.
Coinbase (COIN) gained 14% through the week that saw its shares touch a record high intra-week as the company announced plans to launch US-regulated perpetual futures next month. The move positions Coinbase to capture a share of more than $350 billion monthly derivatives market currently dominated by offshore platforms. CEO Brian Armstrong's revelation that the company is "buying more Bitcoin every week" added fuel to the rally.
Mining stocks, RIOT and MARA, also returned positive weeks after recording two in the red.
Strategy (MSTR) managed a modest 3.84% gain as the company's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy faces growing scrutiny from multiple, identical class-action lawsuits. The legal challenges, filed by at least five different law firms, represent a coordinated effort to challenge the risk disclosures and sustainability of the company's leveraged Bitcoin treasury model.
Circle (CRCL), Wall Street’s latest entrant that led the pack for the last two weeks, experienced a sharp ~25% correction after its explosive IPO debut in early June.
Corporate Adoption: The Ticking Bomb?
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin has become an everyday news with 199 entities now collectively holding 3.01 million BTC worth $315 billion, more than doubling since early 2024.
What started as Michael Saylor's audacious experiment at Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) has evolved into a full-blown corporate movement, with 147 private and public companies now holding 1.1 million BTC ($115 billion) on their balance sheets. The rest is held across entities such as ETFs, governments and custodians.
Strategy still dominates with 53% of corporate Bitcoin holdings.
The corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy spans from Japan's Metaplanet exploiting ultra-low interest rates to GameStop's treasury pivot that sent retail investors into overdrive. Even purpose-built entities like Twenty One Capital, backed by Tether, SoftBank and Cantor, are raising billions specifically to execute the Strategy playbook.
The verdict is that most will fail. Nah, not ours. It's the analysts at an early-stage venture capital firm - Breed.
Why? They must maintain their Multiple on Net Asset Value (MNAV) premium, which shows they can grow Bitcoin-per-share faster than investors could by buying BTC directly. Strategy's 2x historical MNAV has become the gold standard, but newer entrants are scrambling to justify their premiums with increasingly creative approaches.
The fear is that an extended bear market can collapse MNAV premiums just as debt maturities hit. Unlike Strategy's battle-tested survival through 2022-23's 80% Bitcoin crash, these newcomers lack the scale, reputation, and passive index inflows that could save them during the next downturn.
With $8.2 billion in convertible bonds carrying just 0.421% average interest and maturities spread between 2027-2032, Strategy has built significant breathing room. The first major test comes only in September 2028 with $1 billion due. That’s a miniscule figure in comparison with the size of BTC holdings they have.
Newer treasury companies entering at $90,000+ per Bitcoin with higher leverage face a starker reality. ‘How much debt do they hold?’ ‘How much debt do they need to repay? And when?’ Answers to these questions may dictate when these entities will be forced to start liquidating their holdings.
"Most will fail. When they do, the strongest players will acquire distressed assets and consolidate the industry."
Surfer 🏄🏾♂️
Iran’s Bitcoin mining remains complex to estimate with majority of it driven underground due to efforts to avoid high electricity costs and government seizure. The country is likely to have mined 60,000 to 200,000 throughout its history, Andrew Scott Easton, founder and CEO of Bitcoin miner fund Masterminded, estimated.
Bitcoin’s price remains stuck in a range as long-term holders continue selling their positions to institutional buyers since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024, keeping the market stagnant despite strong inflows.
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet purchased 1,005 BTC for $108 million, raising its total holdings to 13,350 BTC and surpassing Galaxy Digital and CleanSpark. The company aims to hold over 210,000 BTC by 2027 and recently issued zero-interest bonds to fund further Bitcoin acquisitions.
Token Dispatch View 🔍
A combination of improving technical indicators, sustained institutional demand, and approaching historic resistance levels creates a conducive zone for a rally in the week ahead.
Bitcoin’s swift recovery from Middle-East tensions, coupled with consistent ETF inflows during the volatility, signals Bitcoin is strengthening its transition from speculative asset to institutional-grade asset.
Bitcoin dominance hitting yearly highs of 65.1% reinforces this thesis, that capital is not rotating within crypto, but in fact flowing from traditional assets and altcoins directly into Bitcoin.
What This Means for Investors
Institutional Acceleration: Current market structure resembles early 2024 before the ETF approval rally. Institutional flows are building momentum that could overwhelm traditional resistance levels once breakthrough occurs.
Macro Data: Watch out for key updates from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he speaks alongside major central bank officials at the European Central Bank forum this week. US labour market data is also expected this week.
Geopolitical Noise: Bitcoin's response to Middle-East tensions proved its emerging safe-haven status. Future geopolitical events likely provide buying opportunities rather than selling pressure.
Flow Sustainability: Monitor ETF flows for consistency rather than magnitude. Sustained institutional accumulation during volatility matters more than peak inflow numbers, as it indicates structural rather than cyclical demand.
The institutional foundation being constructed signals Bitcoin is reinforcing its status as an institutional-grade asset class.
Investors should remain mindful that breakthrough above $109,000 needs to be sustained. Temporary spikes followed by rejection could signal extended consolidation rather than the beginning of the next bull leg.
Investors should position accordingly while recognising that timing remains uncertain. Institutional adoption usually creates powerful trends but operates on longer timeframes than retail speculation.
That's it for this week's Mempool edition.
See ya, next Monday.
Until then …stay sharp,
Prathik
P.s. Forward this dispatch to fellow investors who need edge in their crypto portfolio. They'll thank you when our next call plays out.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter contains analysis and opinions of the author. Content is for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Trading crypto involves substantial risk - your capital is at risk. Do your own research.