Is The Bottom In? 🪨
Crypto Fear & Greed index down to lowest level since early 2023. Government Bitcoin selling is overestimated? Congress to overturn Biden’s Veto? Hamster Kombat hits 239M users. A Vitalik documentary.
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Bitcoin has been the standout performer in the crypto market so far in 2024, significantly outpacing the broader stock market.
Up over 46% in the first first half of 2024, compared to a 15% rise in the S&P 500.
We have also see a 25-20% correction in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
It’s been that sort of the year, all-time highs and then caught in extreme volatility.
Read: Crypto Report Card 🗂️
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely-followed sentiment indicator, has dropped to its lowest level since early 2023 when Bitcoin traded around $17,000.
This comes as the broader crypto market has experienced a significant downturn.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) down 25-30% from their recent highs, and altcoins plummeting by around 50%.
Factors driving the crypto crash: The key catalysts behind the downturn have bee the unloading of seized Bitcoin by the German and US governments, as well as the "preemptive selling" by the defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox started to refund investors this month.
According to data from blockchain tracing platform Arkham Intelligence
The German government still holds around $2.2 billion worth of BTC
The US government has over $12 billion
The Mt. Gox estate has more than $8 billion of assets.
Read: Fire Sale 📉
Outlook for Bitcoin's price: Analysts have mixed views on the outlook for Bitcoin's price.
Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of derivatives trading venue SynFutures, believes the selling pressure is unlikely to abate in the short term.
"The direction of bitcoin in the coming days will be determined by the selling pressure from Mt. Gox users. The market expects most Mt. Gox users dump their tokens, but we might see a bounce back if the selling is lower than anticipated.
On the other hand, if there is enough selling to push the price lower, we might be looking at the $50,000 level soon."
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has trimmed his $55,000 price target for Bitcoin to $50,000, citing August and September are historically "challenging months" for Bitcoin.
"This situation may compel ETF holders and miners to liquidate more position. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, Bitcoin could see another rally attempt."
Block That Quote 🎙️
Founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju
“Don’t let government selling FUD ruin your trades. Govt Bitcoin selling is overestimated,”
VanEck sees BTC price falling to the $53,000 range as a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
On-chain platform Santiment shares the sentiment, urging bold traders to seize the moment.
“Markets have continued to bleed, and social media is now showing historic levels of FUD. It is rare for an hour to go by where there are more mentions of sell than there are buy across crypto forums. But we’ve seen a few of these instances in just the past 24 hours, including the largest ratio of negative vs positive comments thus far in 2024. For bold traders, this is a window where some may wish to be a true contrarian and buy into the crowd’s anger and frustration”.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs see record inflows after July 4 dip.
On July 5, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $143 million.
House to Vote on Overriding Biden's Veto
The US House of Representatives will vote next week on overriding President Biden's veto of the Stablecoin Accountability and Transparency Act (SAB 121).
The upcoming vote represents the latest development in the ongoing debate over cryptocurrency regulation, particularly around stablecoins.
The bill aimed to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, but was ultimately rejected by the President.
President Biden's veto has been criticised by some members of Congress, who argue the legislation was necessary to address risks in the stablecoin market.
The outcome of the House vote will have significant implications for the future of crypto regulation in the US.
Read: If Biden drops out, is crypto villain Gary Gensler out too?
Grayscale survey shows that if the Ethereum (spot) ETF is approved, nearly 25% of potential US voters will be more interested in investing in Ethereum.
Nearly half of voters (47%) expect to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, up from 40% at the end of last year.
Multicoin Capital pledges $1M to support pro-crypto Senate candidates through Sentinel Action Fund, matching 100% of SOL donations by July 14.
The pledge is aimed at influencing US crypto legislation by backing Republican candidates rated highly by Stand With Crypto.
In The Numbers 🔢
239 million
Hamster Kombat users in 81 days, since its launch in March 2024, making it the most popular Telegram mini app in the idle game genre.
Telegram's Pavel Durov sees Web3 potential
The game is described as a "crypto exchange CEO simulator" where players can tap the hamster avatar to generate in-game coins and purchase exchange upgrades.
The project's impressive metrics include a YouTube channel with 32 million subscribers, an X profile with 11.3 million followers, and a Telegram channel with 49.4 million subscribers.
Hamster Kombat's success raises questions about the potential for Web3 games to become an alternative universal basic income (UBI) mechanism.
Read: Hamster Kombat destined for Guinness World Record?
Vitalik: An Ethereum Story
The highly anticipated documentary is set to premiere in September 2024, offering an in-depth look into the life and vision of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
The film, which has been in the making for over three years.
The documentary is part of the "Ethereum Stories" initiative, which includes a series of short films set to release alongside the main feature.
The project gained significant support through crowdfunding, raising 1,035.96 ETH, equivalent to $2.9 million.
Directors Zach Ingrassi and Chris Temple captured key moments in the crypto industry, including the NFT boom, geopolitical turmoil, and the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade.
The world premiere is scheduled for September 18, with a broader theatrical release planned for the fall of 2024.
The Surfer 🏄
Blockchain analytics platform DappRadar reported that the number of daily unique active wallets (dUAW) using Web3 applications reached a record high of approximately 10 million in Q2 2024, a 40% increase from the previous quarter.
Crypto losses to hacks and exploits double in first half to $1.4B, according to a report from blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs.. Top five attacks account for 70% of total stolen. Losses exceed 2023 but lag record 2022 levels.
LATAM warms up to crypto in times of economic uncertainty. Crypto remittances in Venezuela surge as economic situation worsens. Bolivia lifts crypto ban to combat dollar and fuel shortage.
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