Start of Bitcoin's US Election Rally? 🏁
A week away from elections, Bitcoin smashes $71K mark. ETF inflows top $4B in 12 days. Every institution type is now represented in US BTC ETFs. Around 98% of Bitcoin holders currently in profit.
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They said it couldn't happen again.
They said $70k was just a dream.
*checks portfolio … rubs eyes … checks again*
October 29, 2024. Bitcoin well above $70k.
Wall Street just ordered a truckload of "rat poison squared"?
BlackRock's stacking billions, prediction markets are going nuts, and somewhere in a Tesla factory, Elon's probably tweeting about Dogecoin again.
But this isn't 2021 FOMO rally.
This time we've got
ETFs hoarding Bitcoin like squirrels before winter
Two presidential candidates actually competing for crypto votes
Wall Street suits replacing Discord traders
And Fed watchers parsing Powell's every sneeze
Bitcoin's making a statement
Touched $71k (highest since June)
Just 5% shy of March's ATH ($73,737)
Up 3% in 24 hours
Ethereum following suit at $2,566
Even DOGE jumped 13% after Musk's comments
What's really happening?
1/ ETF tsunami
Record-breaking inflows continue - $1 billion inflow last week, pushing the yearly inflow to $27 billion.
BlackRock ETF: Biggest launch in four years and top spot among 1,800 ETFs.
BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $2.6 billion in two weeks.
2/ The writing in the options
Remember when everyone thought $69,000 was a crazy target for Bitcoin?
Now the derivatives markets are telling us that might have just been a warmup.
According to Bitfinex analysts, options traders are piling into December 27th expiry calls with an $80,000 strike price.
In plain English: Smart money is betting Bitcoin will hit new highs before the year is out.
This isn't just idle speculation.
The recent surge past $70,000 has created a perfect storm of positive indicators.
97.6% of all Bitcoin holders are currently in profit
ETF inflows have topped $4 billion in just 12 trading days
To put that ETF appetite in perspective: fewer than 10% of all ETFs in existence have $4 billion in total assets.
Bitcoin ETFs just collected that much in less than three weeks.
3/ The Trump factor
There's an elephant in the room, and it's wearing a red hat.
The derivatives markets are pricing in something that polls have been suggesting for weeks: the increasing possibility of a Trump victory on November 5th.
Love him or hate him, the market sees Trump presidency as bullish for risk assets — Bitcoin included.
Read: Can Polymarket Whales Sway US Voter Sentiment? 🐋
It's not just about Trump's policies. It's about what his election would signal: a return to the kind of market environment that saw Bitcoin soar in 2020 and 2021.
With just a week until America decides, Trump's sitting pretty at 66% on Polymarket after his Joe Rogan appearance hit 32 million views.
Meanwhile, Harris leads traditional polls by 1.3%.
Both candidates promising crypto-friendly policies.
"Our bet is that this is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin into the election. We saw the same pattern in 2020: Bitcoin lagged with low volatility, then BOOM - high-vol rally once a winner was announced."
4/ Macro factors
This week's packed with catalysts.
Q3 GDP report coming
Personal consumption data (inflation tracker)
Friday's jobs report
Fed meeting next week
Rate cut expectations building
"Together, these releases will provide a comprehensive overview of the economy’s strength, inflation trajectory, and employment trends … These factors can significantly influence Bitcoin's price trajectory."
4/The technical picture
Traders are spotting bullish signals
Golden cross formation confirmed
50-day MA crossing above 200-day
Strong support at $66,500
The big question isn't if Bitcoin will hit a new ATH, but when? And will it happen before Americans hit the polls?
A note of caution
Before you mortgage the house to buy Bitcoin calls, remember this: we've been here before.
The last time 97% of Bitcoin holders were in profit was June 5th. What followed wasn't pretty — a drop from $71,100 to below $56,000 in a month.
But this time feels different.
ETF inflows are providing steady buying pressure
The halving hike is still pending
Institutional adoption is at all-time highs
Macro conditions are increasingly favourable
In crypto, as in life, the only certainty is uncertainty. But at least this time, the smart money is betting on the upside.
Block That Quote🎙️
Bloomberg's ETF guru, Eric Balchunas
"With that, every institution type is now represented in BTC ETF 13Fs"
Universities Are Going Bitcoin
Emory University just dropped $15.1M into Bitcoin ETFs.
First US university endowment in BTC ETFs
2.7M shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust
Making history and turning heads
Translation? Everyone's here.
Endowments ✅
Banks ✅
Hedge Funds ✅
Insurance Companies ✅
Pensions ✅
Family Offices ✅
And it doesn't stop there,
Crypto funds = 13 of 25 largest ETF launches in 2024.
Bitcoin dominating 6 of top 10 spots.
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In The Numbers 🔢
$27 billion
That's the total inflow into digital assets in 2024, nearly tripling the previous record of $10.5 billion set in 2021.
Asset breakdown
Bitcoin: +$920M
Short-Bitcoin: -$1.3M (bears hibernating?)
Ethereum: -$35M (ouch!)
Solana: +$10.8M
Blockchain stocks: +$12.2M
Bitcoin Miners Are Feasting
Mining stocks just pulled a +24% day on October 28.
Out of the 24 listed Bitcoin miners across the world, 22 finished positive.
Winners Board
Bitdeer: +24.4% (AI play champion)
IREN: +17.8%
Gryphon: +16.5%
Hut 8: +15.5%
Marathon & CleanSpark: +10%
It's not just crypto pushing these gains. Its also AI.
Benchmark's Mark Palmer
"We are seeing two big drivers of bitcoin miner stock appreciation working at the same time, with the price of bitcoin rising at the same time that enthusiasm for bitcoin mining stocks as plays on the growth of AI has returned."
Jefferies' Jonathan Peterson on Core Scientific
"Impressive post-bankruptcy comeback story as the company leverages its significant access to power — previously earmarked for Bitcoin mining — to build AI-focused data centres."
Core Scientific CEO Adam Sullivan
"Signing up another 500MW or 1GW of deals over the next few years puts us in a position where we're not a $2.5 billion company, we are potentially a $25 to $30 billion company."
Why? That sweet, sweet AI data centre revenue.
12-year deal with CoreWeave
Potential $3.5B in revenue
There's more.
BRICS nations eyeing Bitcoin mining
Argentina, UAE, Ethiopia joining the party
Russia building mining infrastructure
Dollar dominance? Getting shaky
The Surfer 🏄
Dogecoin surged nearly 12% after Elon Musk's appearance at a Donald Trump rally, where he discussed plans for a "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E.), coincidentally sharing the same acronym as Dogecoin.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEX) is set to launch the HKEX Virtual Asset Index Series on November 15, providing reference prices for Bitcoin and Ether during Asian trading hours.
Robinhood has launched event contracts for the upcoming US presidential election, allowing users to bet on whether former President Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
Metaplanet's stock surged 8% after the Tokyo-based firm announced that its Bitcoin holdings have exceeded 1,000 BTC, now valued at approximately $69 million. The latest acquisition of over 156 BTC for around $10 million positions Metaplanet as a significant player in corporate Bitcoin adoption in Asia.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has firmly denied claims of selling any ETH in the past month, asserting that his holdings have actually increased.
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Another insightful article, thank you!!
With the 2024 election bringing crypto policies to the forefront, it’s evident that Bitcoin's market trajectory is increasingly tied to regulatory stances. The fact that candidates are actively courting the crypto community indicates that digital assets are no longer on the fringe of U.S. economic policy. It’ll be interesting to see if this support continues post-election or if it’s just campaign rhetoric.