Will Crypto Cast its Vote in 2024? 🗳️
Crypto is important, but not more than other traditional election issues like economy, health and immigration policy for the US Presidential election in 2024. So, what does that mean for crypto?
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A little over four and a half years ago, the then US president Donald Trump was positioned not too bad with 3.5% unemployment rate in the country.
The country had barely any idea about the incoming black swan event - Covid-19 virus - then.
All that changed in just two months.
About 23 million Americans were out of a job in mid-April 2020 with lots of small businesses shut across the country.
Unemployment shot up to 14.7% in just two months, per Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Covid was the most important problem facing the nation for at least one in every three voters in the 2020 US presidential elections, a study showed.
Another survey by Pew Research, showed economy, health care and Supreme Court appointments as the top issues for voters.
And now? In 2024?
Little has changed.
Then, what is different in the upcoming US Presidential Elections in 2024?
Same old election issues got new company - crypto.
Remember, crypto is relatively young. But old enough to have lived through three US presidential elections - 2012, 2016 and 2020.
But, this will be the first time ever, crypto will be an election issue for the US voters.
Read: Crypto Goes Big On US Elections 🎈
And, how did we get here?
What exactly changed for crypto?
Adoption, for starters.
And it is likely to go just north from here on.
More Americans wish to own crypto in the future now than they did in 2023.
What more?
Crypto has come a long, long way in just the last four years.
How long?
Crypto adoption has been driven up by the mainstreaming of Bitcoin, the most dominant cryptocurrency, in the recent years.
Both - the ETFs and exposure through listed companies such as MicroStrategy - have made it easy and secure for institutional and retail investors to get exposure to the high-risk asset.
Read: Should You Invest in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet?
But, do voters even care about all this?
It is complicated.
About 49% of the overall US voters find a pro-crypto stance important, showed a study by Consensys and HarrisX.
And within the crypto community, 85% of voters expect candidates to adopt pro-crypto positions.
Read: Millennials pick crypto over other assets as $84T wealth transfer looms
So, crypto matters. Just not everywhere in the country.
But crypto could swing the elections in the battleground states.
Says who? Dr Tonya M Evans, a law professor at Pennsylvania State University, told Cointelegraph.
"The race really isn't about winning over the general population, but about navigating the Electoral College game. That means that if there are small voter shifts in crucial states, [like] Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, etc, that could move the needle."
What else makes crypto important?
Money.
Bitcoin, donations more than a policy statement, are a fundraising tool.
Both - political action committees (PAC) and corporates - have poured in record-level money to lobby for the industry.
How much?
About $40 million in just 2023. For context, $78.94 million out of $131.91 million spent on crypto lobbying happened in just 2022 and 2023.
The crypto lobbying expense in the US has jumped 1386% since 2017.
What about the PACs?
More than $174 million. That’s how much cryptocurrency-focused PACs have raised to influence the 2024 elections. About $123 million out of that has already been spent, as per Follow the crypto.
Who benefited? Mostly politicians across parties who advocated for pro-crypto policies.
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What do the presidential candidates say about crypto?
Well, let’s just say the fate of crypto was not the only thing that changed dramatically over the past four years.
So did the voice of top presidential contenders towards crypto.
Former President Donald Trump was the first to change sides.
From declaring it “not money” to launching his own little crypto project.
Read: Trump's WLF: Triumph or Fiasco? ⚠️
Now, he wants to champion the digital assets industry and make America "the crypto capital of the world.”
What more? He proposed to make a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
A Bloomberg report said, he also promised to kick out Gary Gensler from the SEC chair position, if elected as the President, and hire more people who love crypto.
Read: Hello Bitcoiners 👋
And what about the Democrats?
They were slow to the party but have caught up.
From starting with a legacy of coming from an anti-crypto Biden-led establishment, Kamala Harris has moved the needle on behalf of Democrats quite a bit in just the last month.
After a couple of months of silence over crypto, she gave the first hint.
"We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting investors and consumers,” she said during a fundraiser event at Cipriani Wall Street on September 22.
She then got even more specific.
During a speech at The Economic Club of Pittsburgh, Harris said that blockchain, AI, and other emerging technologies would play a central role in her administration if elected in November.
Read: Ripple Labs Co-Founder Donates $1 Million in XRP to Pro-Kamala Harris PAC
The shifts in the stance towards crypto have also been driving up the odds for both the candidates at Polymarket prediction.
So, two presidential candidates with little history to prove their allegiance to pro-crypto stance, outrightly supporting crypto now.
Hell of a shift in stance, you’d think.
Should you side with them for their crypto stance already?
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin doesn’t feel so.
"By publicly giving the impression that you support 'pro-crypto' candidates just because they are 'pro-crypto,' you are helping to create an incentive gradient where politicians come to understand that all they need to get your support is to support 'crypto,'" Buterin had posted on his blog.
Read: Pro-Crypto, Not Pro-Crypto Politics
Last month, crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto initially gave Harris a "B" rating, indicating that she "somewhat supports crypto."
This was right after Harris’ comments at the fundraiser event.
But crypto Twitter weren’t happy.
She didn’t deserve the rating for a sole mention of “digital assets”. They felt.
“It’s hard to take Harris’ comments on digital assets seriously when she’s part of an administration that has gone after the industry at every turn. Actions matter.” VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel told Decrypt.
The group downgraded Harris' rating back to "NA" (not applicable) from "B".
Token Dispatch View
Although 49% of US voters found pro-crypto stance important, the absolute number of crypto users is still proportionately too small to impact overall elections.
Like Dr Evans said, “To many voters, crypto is a top-of-mind issue, though not top-line”.
Crypto is likely to remain important, but not more than other traditional election issues like economy, health and immigration policy.
A recent Benzinga poll found that only 6% of respondents wanted to hear the 2024 US presidential candidates discuss crypto during a debate, while 45% wanted to hear about the economy and job creation, and 24% wanted the candidates to discuss immigration.
We expect crypto’s influence on elections to be limited to some states where other larger issues may fail to make voters decide.
So, what does that mean for crypto?
Don’t be surprised if there is little impact of the election results on crypto industry.
“Regardless of the outcome, I expect you to see digital asset legislation start to move in both bodies,” Republican congressman Tom Emmer told Decrypt. “I think it is ‘when,’ not ‘if,’ regardless of who’s in charge.”
Industry experts also predicted a bullish Bitcoin outlook irrespective of who enters the White House.
Already an election win for crypto, then?
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